{"id":2390,"date":"2024-11-23T17:31:45","date_gmt":"2024-11-23T16:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peakx.at\/?p=2390"},"modified":"2025-12-03T15:25:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T14:25:25","slug":"what-exactly-is-strategic-avalanche-science","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peakx.at\/en\/was-ist-eigentlich-strategische-lawinenkunde\/","title":{"rendered":"What exactly is \"strategic avalanche management\"?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Strategic avalanche management: methods of decision-making<\/h2>\n<p>A distinction is generally made between three different types of decision-making: the\u00a0<i>analytical\u00a0<\/i>Species that\u00a0<i>probalistic<\/i>\u00a0type and the\u00a0<i>Intuitive\u00a0<\/i>Art. Each of these methods has its place in the assessment of avalanche danger and the resulting decisions. In order to achieve the best possible balance between risk and safety, each of these methods of decision-making must be considered. However, any decision is useless if the subsequent behaviour is not aligned with the decision or if the wrong measures are taken.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\tWhy actually a strategy?\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\tEine Strategie bedeutet in erster Linie ein strukturiertes Vorgehen, um ein bestimmtes Ziel zu erreichen. Dieses Ziel soll mit Hilfe eines Plans erreicht werden, der unter Ber\u00fccksichtigung der zur Verf\u00fcgung stehenden Mittel, Ressourcen und Informationen umgesetzt wird.<br \/>\nDas Ziel der strategischen Lawinenkunde ist es Lawinenunf\u00e4llen zu vermeiden. Das Problem ist jedoch die Komplexit\u00e4t der Schneedecke und der lawinenbildenden Faktoren. Selbst der beste Experte kann nicht alle relevanten Zusammenh\u00e4nge erfassen, die zur Bildung von Lawinen f\u00fchren.<br \/>\nDie Strategie soll helfen, in schwierigen Situationen und ohne vollst\u00e4ndige Informationen Ordnung in das Chaos der Komplexit\u00e4t zu bringen. Es ergibt sich dadurch die Chance, mit m\u00f6glichst wenig Verzicht ein akzeptables Risiko zu erreichen \u2013 sofern man bereit ist, bestimmte Ma\u00dfnahmen umzusetzen und Grenzen zu akzeptieren.\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<h3>1. analytical decision-making<\/h3>\n<p>The path of\u00a0<b>analytical decision-making<\/b>\u00a0could be described as classic avalanche science, as it was the standard method for assessing avalanche risk for many years. When making analytical decisions, it is necessary to analyse the snowpack. This is done by creating snow profiles and carrying out stability tests such as the slide block, compression test (CT) or ECT. The problem is the validity of these tests. A snow profile or stability test is only carried out at a specific location. But are these results representative of the entire slope? Many experts doubt this. The latest and very renowned analytical strategy comes from Bavaria in the form of the \"Systematic Snowpack Diagnosis\". Systematic snowpack diagnosis focusses on the small block test and attempts to evaluate the result using process thinking and derive decisions from it. This provides the user with practical tools. Digging lengthy snow profiles for every tour is not reasonable due to time constraints.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, avalanche commissions and professionals such as mountain and ski guides do carry out regular snowpack surveys in their home area in order to obtain as complete a picture as possible of the processes in the snowpack throughout the winter.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lawinenkurse.de\/fileadmin\/Redaktion\/PDF__S\/SSD_Card.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&gt; MORE ABOUT SYSTEMATIC SNOW COVER ANALYSIS<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alpenverein.at\/bergundsteigen_wAssets\/archiv\/2019\/1\/16-27(20%20jahre%20systematische%20schneedeckendiagnose).pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&gt; CONTRIBUTION TO SSD IN MOUNTAINEERING<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>2. probabilistic decision-making<\/h3>\n<p>It was \"avalanche pope\" Werner Munter who, with his method of\u00a0<b>probabilistic decision making<\/b>\u00a0opened up a completely new path in avalanche science. Initially, there was a great deal of rejection and scepticism, especially among experts. Today, nobody doubts the importance and justification of probability-based avalanche science.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The basic idea is to take certain probabilities into account and derive simple patterns of thought and action from them. Based on these easy-to-understand criteria and the structured approach, both beginners and professionals can achieve a good result in complex situations. A \"good result\" refers to a decision made on tour or when riding variants, in which a socially acceptable decision is made.\u00a0<b>Acceptable residual risk<\/b>\u00a0remains.<\/p>\n<p>Probabilistic methods are based on the following assumptions and thought patterns:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Avalanche accidents also happen on south-facing slopes - but less often than in the northern sector!<\/li>\n<li>Accidents also happen on steep slopes up to 34\u00b0 - but less so on very steep and extremely steep slopes from 35\u00b0!<\/li>\n<li>Accidents also happen in tracked terrain - but less than in untracked terrain!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u2026man w\u00e4hlt also immer das geringere Risiko.\u00a0Werner Munter zufolge sind regelbasierte Entscheidungen jenen, die intuitiv oder rein wissensbasiert gef\u00e4llt werden, auf Dauer \u00fcberlegen.\u00a0<em>\"Thinking instead of digging\"<\/em>\u00a0was his motto, with which he made no friends among many real and would-be experts.<\/p>\n<h4>Professional reduction method<\/h4>\n<p>The Professional Reduction Method (PRM) was developed by Werner Munter in 1992. It is the most complex of all reduction methods, but gives the user the most room for manoeuvre in terms of limits.<\/p>\n<p>In principle, PRM is about analysing the current\u00a0<b>Hazard potential\u00a0<\/b>with a possible\u00a0<b>Reduction potential\u00a0<\/b>in relation to each other. If the final result is a risk of less than 1, the risk is acceptable. If not, alternative measures must be taken. For example, a less steep slope or a different exposure can be selected. The aim is therefore to reduce the risk by adding further reduction factors.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/prm_2-300x236.png.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"prm_2-300x236.png\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6MjM5MywidXJsIjoiaHR0cHM6XC9cL3BlYWt4LmF0XC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8wN1wvcHJtXzItMzAweDIzNi5wbmcud2VicCJ9\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/prm_2-300x236.png.webp\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The mean value is generally used for the hazard potential. However, intermediate values are possible. It should be noted that the hazard potential doubles with each avalanche warning level - a fact that not every winter sports enthusiast is aware of.<\/li>\n<li>The reduction potential is the multiplication of the applicable reduction factors.<\/li>\n<li>With a \"high\" avalanche danger (4), the risk is no longer calculable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In practice, the PRM is rarely applied in its full form. One reason for this is that hardly any expert knows all ten reduction factors by heart.  Other reduction methods have been derived from the PRM:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Elementary reduction method (ERM):<\/strong>\u00a0the limits are based solely on the slope gradient and the warning level according to the avalanche report. This method is aimed at beginners and occasional tourers and offers the greatest possible safety, but also requires maximum sacrifice.<br \/><em>moderate &gt;&gt; less than 40\u00b0<\/em><br \/><em>considerable &gt;&gt; less than 35\u00b0<\/em><br \/><em>large &gt;&gt; less than 30\u00b0<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Beer mat:<\/strong>\u00a0The beer mat method is a very successful further development of the PRM. Werner Munter has simplified the beer mat once again so that no more calculations are necessary and all important reduction factors are still included. This method allows the greatest possible leeway and fits on a beer mat.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>SnowCard<\/strong>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3ydDcAP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>SnowCard<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0was realised by Martin Engler and\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alpenverein.de\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DAV<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and is based on the elementary reduction method. With the SnowCard, the slope gradient and the avalanche warning level are compared. The assessment of the exposure (favourable or unfavourable) is also included in the decision-making process.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\n\t\t\t\t&#8222;Der Besuch eines Kurses unter professioneller Anleitung ist unumg\u00e4nglich, um die Methoden der Strategischen Lawinenkunde verstehen und anwenden zu k\u00f6nnen. &#8220;\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3>3. intuitive decision-making<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Intuition<\/strong>\u00a0means making good decisions based on gut instinct. Experts with extensive experience in particular often make decisions based on their gut feeling and therefore achieve a high hit rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The theory of intuition is that the subconscious mind can take far more information into account than the conscious mind. The conscious mind, on the other hand, is very precise in processing information, but can only deal with a limited amount of information. Intuition is a fundamental human skill that enables us to react appropriately in complex situations.<\/p>\n<h4>The limits of intuition when making decisions in alpine terrain<\/h4>\n<p>Even though intuition is an ingenious means of decision-making and each of us is at least partially guided by intuition, it also has disadvantages. For one thing, intuition is difficult to understand and communicate. Intuition can hardly be taught in courses, for example. Secondly, intuition is not so strong that it can really reliably prevent accidents. It is true that many experts say after accidents that they had a \"bad gut feeling\". However, this gut feeling usually does not ultimately lead to the necessary (avoidance) decisions.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, especially for professional decision-makers in a guarantor position (mountain guides, ski guides, avalanche commission), there is the aspect that intuition is difficult to argue in the event of a court hearing.<\/p>\n<p>Intuition is therefore unsuitable as a decision-making method for beginners and cannot be taught in courses. Experts can certainly rely on their gut feeling, but should always cross-check it with analytical and probabilistic methods.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Book tip:<\/strong>\u00a0The Oberinntal mountain guide Florian Schranz has written a controversial book about intuition as a method of decision-making in the mountains.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.berg-sein.at\/berg-sein-das-buch.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>BERG SEIN - The book\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>4. combined decision-making strategies<\/h3>\n<p>Combined decision-making strategies take into account different methods of decision-making.<\/p>\n<p>One of the best-known combined methods is\u00a0<strong>Stop or Go<\/strong>. Stop or Go were presented to the mountain guides Michael Larcher and Robert Pfurtscheller in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alpenverein.at\/portal\/news\/aktuelle_news\/2020\/2020_01_16_Stop-or-Go.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Austrian Alpine Club<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0developed. Stop or Go is made up of\u00a0<strong>Standard measures<\/strong>\u00a0(Standard Operating Procedures - SOP) and a\u00a0<strong>Decision strategy<\/strong>which consists of two checks (Check 1 + Check 2).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<strong>Standard measures<\/strong>\u00a0take into account basic aspects of tour planning, such as avalanche reports, weather reports, maps, groups and equipment, as well as standard measures in the terrain. These include relief distances, avalanche transceiver check, track system and orientation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Check 1<\/strong>\u00a0is based on the elementary reduction method. This means that, depending on the avalanche warning level, clear limits are set with regard to the steepness of the slopes to be skied. This is supplemented with\u00a0<strong>Check 2<\/strong>which uses analytics to recognise signs of danger in the snowpack. These include the critical amount of new snow, fresh drifting snow, settling noises, fresh avalanches, crack formation and heavy soaking. If it is decided after Check 2 that no signs of danger are recognisable, the tour can be continued. Otherwise the tour must be changed or cancelled.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Because Check 1 is backed up with Check 2, the Stop or Go method is a tool with a large safety buffer, but which also requires a lot of sacrifice if used consistently. With the \"nevertheless go factors\"\u00a0<em>heavily tracked<\/em>,\u00a0<em>Forest<\/em>\u00a0or\u00a0<em>Melting harsh<\/em>\u00a0more room for manoeuvre was introduced in the latest version.<\/p>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6MjM5NywidXJsIjoiaHR0cHM6XC9cL3BlYWt4LmF0XC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8wN1wvU2tpdG91cmVuLVN0b3Atb3ItR28tS2FydGUtMjAxOS0yMC1TZWl0ZS0xLmpwZy53ZWJwIn0%3D\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1004\" height=\"1276\" src=\"https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg.webp\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg.webp 1004w, https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg-236x300.webp 236w, https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg-806x1024.webp 806w, https:\/\/peakx.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Skitouren-Stop-or-Go-Karte-2019-20-Seite-1.jpg-768x976.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><figcaption>Austrian Alpine Club<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>Conclusion<\/h3>\n<p>The snowpack and the topic of avalanches are so complex that making the right decisions is very difficult, even for experts. Decision-making strategies help to create a guideline with the help of structures and rules that experts and beginners can use for orientation. The great challenge is to make decisions in complex situations with insufficient information that still contain a socially accepted residual risk. It takes a lot of practice and training to be able to apply such decision-making strategies correctly. It is best to make use of the training programmes offered by\u00a0<strong>professional ski guides<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h4>Author<\/h4>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256c0 123.78 90.69 226.38 209.25 245V327.69h-63V256h63v-54.64c0-62.15 37-96.48 93.67-96.48 27.14 0 55.52 4.84 55.52 4.84v61h-31.28c-30.8 0-40.41 19.12-40.41 38.73V256h68.78l-11 71.69h-57.78V501C413.31 482.38 504 379.78 504 256z\"><\/path><\/svg><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewbox=\"0 0 496 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M496 256c0 137-111 248-248 248-25.6 0-50.2-3.9-73.4-11.1 10.1-16.5 25.2-43.5 30.8-65 3-11.6 15.4-59 15.4-59 8.1 15.4 31.7 28.5 56.8 28.5 74.8 0 128.7-68.8 128.7-154.3 0-81.9-66.9-143.2-152.9-143.2-107 0-163.9 71.8-163.9 150.1 0 36.4 19.4 81.7 50.3 96.1 4.7 2.2 7.2 1.2 8.3-3.3.8-3.4 5-20.3 6.9-28.1.6-2.5.3-4.7-1.7-7.1-10.1-12.5-18.3-35.3-18.3-56.6 0-54.7 41.4-107.6 112-107.6 60.9 0 103.6 41.5 103.6 100.9 0 67.1-33.9 113.6-78 113.6-24.3 0-42.6-20.1-36.7-44.8 7-29.5 20.5-61.3 20.5-82.6 0-19-10.2-34.9-31.4-34.9-24.9 0-44.9 25.7-44.9 60.2 0 22 7.4 36.8 7.4 36.8s-24.5 103.8-29 123.2c-5 21.4-3 51.6-.9 71.2C65.4 450.9 0 361.1 0 256 0 119 111 8 248 8s248 111 248 248z\"><\/path><\/svg><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M380.9 97.1C339 55.1 283.2 32 223.9 32c-122.4 0-222 99.6-222 222 0 39.1 10.2 77.3 29.6 111L0 480l117.7-30.9c32.4 17.7 68.9 27 106.1 27h.1c122.3 0 224.1-99.6 224.1-222 0-59.3-25.2-115-67.1-157zm-157 341.6c-33.2 0-65.7-8.9-94-25.7l-6.7-4-69.8 18.3L72 359.2l-4.4-7c-18.5-29.4-28.2-63.3-28.2-98.2 0-101.7 82.8-184.5 184.6-184.5 49.3 0 95.6 19.2 130.4 54.1 34.8 34.9 56.2 81.2 56.1 130.5 0 101.8-84.9 184.6-186.6 184.6zm101.2-138.2c-5.5-2.8-32.8-16.2-37.9-18-5.1-1.9-8.8-2.8-12.5 2.8-3.7 5.6-14.3 18-17.6 21.8-3.2 3.7-6.5 4.2-12 1.4-32.6-16.3-54-29.1-75.5-66-5.7-9.8 5.7-9.1 16.3-30.3 1.8-3.7.9-6.9-.5-9.7-1.4-2.8-12.5-30.1-17.1-41.2-4.5-10.8-9.1-9.3-12.5-9.5-3.2-.2-6.9-.2-10.6-.2-3.7 0-9.7 1.4-14.8 6.9-5.1 5.6-19.4 19-19.4 46.3 0 27.3 19.9 53.7 22.6 57.4 2.8 3.7 39.1 59.7 94.8 83.8 35.2 15.2 49 16.5 66.6 13.9 10.7-1.6 32.8-13.4 37.4-26.4 4.6-13 4.6-24.1 3.2-26.4-1.3-2.5-5-3.9-10.5-6.6z\"><\/path><\/svg><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z\"><\/path><\/svg><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M448 192V77.25c0-8.49-3.37-16.62-9.37-22.63L393.37 9.37c-6-6-14.14-9.37-22.63-9.37H96C78.33 0 64 14.33 64 32v160c-35.35 0-64 28.65-64 64v112c0 8.84 7.16 16 16 16h48v96c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h320c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-96h48c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16V256c0-35.35-28.65-64-64-64zm-64 256H128v-96h256v96zm0-224H128V64h192v48c0 8.84 7.16 16 16 16h48v96zm48 72c-13.25 0-24-10.75-24-24 0-13.26 10.75-24 24-24s24 10.74 24 24c0 13.25-10.75 24-24 24z\"><\/path><\/svg><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/blog\/\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTo the blog<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\tDon't miss out: register now for spontaneous tours!\t\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\tWould you like to be informed immediately if the conditions are perfect and a group tour is announced?<br \/>\nRegistration for our spontaneous tour newsletter and all information about current group tours takes place via subscription to our official WhatsApp channel.<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/whatsapp.com\/channel\/0029VbBhJZ56RGJQ2KqnZC3l\" target=\"_blank\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\tSubscribe to WhatsApp channel\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Further contributions<\/h2>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Strategic avalanche management should help to optimise the relationship between risk and safety. It forms a decision-making basis for behaviour in alpine areas and aims to prevent avalanche accidents. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2392,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Die strategische Lawinenkunde soll helfen, das Verh\u00e4ltnis zwischen Risiko und Sicherheit optimal zu gestalten. 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